Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, September 2020

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, September 2020

The State of ACES – What’s up with autonomous-connected-electric-shared?

What has been going on in ACES (autonomous – connected – electric – shared mobility) lately? Not so much? It seems things have lost steam, or at least attention has shifted. Autonomous driving used to be the hot topic, but lately EVs – cars and trucks – have been getting a lot of media interest, regulators’ attention, and certainly business activity.

In this Chart of the Month I am a bit “reading the tea leaves” as I analyze Google Trends as to how much interest there has been in those mobility topics. One actually finds that electric vehicles as a topic has been steadily increasing for the last five years, while autonomous driving has had a few peaks here and there, but has not really built up much more momentum since summer 2016.

Now, this is not a scientific analysis and not real data indicating technology progress. But taking it all together, it reflects in my mind where future mobility as a hole stands – it might be just the calm before the storm…

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, August 2020

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, August 2020

Reverse merger, SPAC, TSLA – Observations around recent financial activity of mobility firms.

There is a lot of activity, talk, and maybe hype around SPAC, reverse merger, and in particular EV companies going public through that route at the moment. But what is behind this, how does it work, and what is the broader picture here?

This month’s video discusses the definition, process, and history of reverse mergers through a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) and suggests that this might need to be seen in context of Tesla’s unprecedented and apparently unstoppable stock rally. While newcomer EV companies might aim for additional funding opportunities, there could also be an opportunity in becoming part of the frenzy that seems to be currently going on at the stock market related to electric mobility.

What do you think? What is happening here and am I missing anything?

Disclaimer: this is not a financial or investment advice. It is the observation of a layperson and solely intended for informational purposes.

The Future of the Automated Mobility Industry: A Strategic Management Perspective

The Future of the Automated Mobility Industry: A Strategic Management Perspective

I am proud to have co-authored this paper with Prof. Robert Burgelman at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business.

Our paper examines the automation and sharing aspects of the competitive dynamics of the emerging automated mobility industry. It applies strategic management, technological innovation and forecasting frameworks to examine how the different categories of industry entrants position themselves and interact with one another, and their differential chances for success.

Related to the different types of entrants it considers various criteria of success, including expected market share of vehicle sales versus miles serviced, and the number of systems, technology solutions, or licenses sold. Whether firms enter the automated mobility industry with a lateral move from an adjacent industry or as startups without preexisting experience turns out to be an important strategic distinction for predicting success.

The rate at which the industry is shifting also plays an important role because it defines how much time incumbents have to adapt to change and how much time new entrants have before their investments must begin to generate positive cash flows.Our analysis suggests that tech companies, ADAS suppliers, and startups with a welldefined focus are most likely to succeed. The paper ends with highlighting important strategic issues for further discussion with automotive industry researchers, industry analysts, and leading practitioners.

Keywords: automotive industry, automated driving, autonomous driving, autonomous vehicles, shared mobility, driver assistance, ADAS, strategy, disruption, innovation management

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