electric – Silicon Valley Mobility

Report on traditional automotive industry and new mobility players

Posted on July 8, 2024July 8, 2024 by SiliconValleyMobility

I am proud to have my latest publication with SAE International out:
TWO APPROACHES TO MOBILITY ENGINEERING

This topic is very dear to my heart: to compare and contrast the traditional automotive industry and the new mobility players. Too often have I been getting questions like “who will win?” or “don’t you agree that the metal benders are just dinosaurs that don’t get it?”. Well, the answers are “tough to tell” and “no” and it was about time to write a whole report about the evolution of this fascinating industry.

Here’s the abstract, and see the link on the right for the whole report:
What are the differences between the traditional automotive companies and “new mobility” players—and even more importantly, who will win? Those are the questions that this report discusses, taking a particular focus on engineering aspects in the automotive/mobility sector and addressing issues regarding innovation, business, market, and regulation. To find answers to the questions raised, nearly 20 industry experts from new and established companies were interviewed to gain an overview of the intricacies of newcomers and incumbents, to see where the industry stands, and to provide an outlook on where the sector is headed. This is rounded out by recommendations as to what respective players should do to master their future and stay at the forefront of mobility innovation.

SAE The Mobility Frontier – Is the EV industry moving too fast too soon?

Posted on May 22, 2024May 31, 2024 by SiliconValleyMobility

Recently, I had a great discussion with Brian Kozumplik on the state of electric vehicles. Hosted by Monica Nogueira of SAE International, we delved into whether the industry has moved to zero-emission vehicles too fast given that charging problems are common place now and consumers seem to fear charge anxiety more than range anxiety, which was a common phenomenon in the early 2010s when the first EVs hit our roads.

Other questions we discussed were around use cases and if there is something like the “perfect” electric vehicle – whether that may be BEV, HEV, PHEV, FEV, or else.

SAE really seemed to like this line from me: “… mobility, in my view, includes the whole ecosystem – we are not done when the vehicle is ready, we are done when the whole ecosystem is ready. This will require a whole lot of infrastructure and that’s what we need to figure out. Otherwise, the great vehicle remains in the garage and there’s nowhere to go because the infrastructure is not ready…”

You can watch the recording through the link here on the right.

Book event at the Stanford Research Park – April 13, 2023

Posted on March 14, 2023March 14, 2023 by SiliconValleyMobility

Mark your calendars – we are having a networking event to discuss my book The Mobility Diaries on April 13, 5pm at Stanford Research Park. This is an in-person event open to the public.

Here’s the program (or visit event page):
5:00 Reception, early guests will get a free book
5:30 “The Mobility Diaries” – A conversation with Dr. Sven Beiker
6:15 Book signing and networking

The Mobility Diaries, published by SAE International, tell my view of how autonomous, connected, electric, and shared vehicles have come about. Now I look forward to a good discussion and am eager to get your take on the matter.

Registration is now open at: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/author-event-with-dr-sven-beiker-tickets-575687134717

See you there!

Click here to register for the event on Apr 13

SAE International Blog about The Mobility Diaries

Posted on February 22, 2023March 14, 2023 by SiliconValleyMobility

Thank you SAE International for blogging about my new book, The Mobility Diaries: https://www.sae.org/blog/meet-the-author-sven-beiker

It summarizes the interview we did not too long ago when I shared how the idea for the book came about, why it is important to me to connect the past – present – future of mobility, and how Detroit and Silicon Valley need one another.

Read more in the blog, or better yet, buy the book!
http://themobilitydiaries.com

New book coming out – Meet the Author event with SAE Publishers

Posted on September 16, 2022September 20, 2022 by SiliconValleyMobility

So we are getting real: My book “The Mobility Diaries” is now finally coming out. Join us on September 21 for a “Meet the Author” online session hosted by SAE International, my publisher.

Here’s a bit more about the book:
Sven Beiker is specializing in future trends for the automotive and mobility industries including autonomous driving, connectivity, electrification, and shared mobility. In “The Mobility Diaries: Connecting the Milestones of Innovation Leading to ACES”, he opens up his personal diary regarding his take on 50 years of mobility innovation and history interwoven with his experiences from 1978 to 2018.

From the Foreword by Reilly Brennan: “Understanding how transportation itself evolved requires a unique prism. The core components of vehicles today have stories and engineering journeys worth their own telling, and that is what is so exciting about the way we can learn about them in this text. Dr. Beiker’s curriculum vitae, from BMW to Stanford University to McKinsey, are a compendium of experiences that created this unique historical and biographical book.”

“Sven and I are kindred spirits in the mobility world. His view on the evolution of mobility and technology illustrates why Detroit and Silicon Valley need one another.” Carla Bailo, Former President and CEO, Center for Automotive Research

The book can be purchased at SAE International right away and soon everywhere where you can buy books.

Click here to register for the webcast on Sep 2 1

Report on Energy Options on the Path Toward a More Sustainable Transportation Sector

Posted on September 5, 2022March 14, 2023 by SiliconValleyMobility

I just published another SAE International report, this time related to sustainability in transportation: Energy Options on the Path Toward a More Sustainable Transportation Sector

The transportation sector has an enormous demand for resources and energy, is a major contributor of emissions (i.e., greenhouse gases in particular), and it is defined largely by the kind of energy it uses—be it electric cars, biofuel trucks, or hydrogen aircraft. Given the size of this sector, it has a crucial role in combatting climate change and securing sustainability in its three forms: environmental, societal, and economic.

Energy Options on the Path Toward a More Sustainable Transportation Sector examines the many questions concerning alternative energy options for mobility:

Is hydrogen the fuel of the future?
Is there is enough electricity to power a fully electric transportation sector?
What happens when millions of electric vehicle batteries need to be decommissioned?
Which regulatory measures are effective and appropriate for moving the sector in the right direction?
What is the “right” direction?

SAE’s Sven Beiker to chair the session on smart sensors and sensor fusion at Sensors Converge 2022

Posted on June 13, 2022 by SiliconValleyMobility

(originally published by SAE International on June 13, 2022 at https://www.sae.org/blog/sensors-converge-beiker)

Dr. Sven Beiker, Managing Director of Silicon Valley Mobility and External Advisor for SAE International, will chair a session at the upcoming Sensors Converge conference June 27-29 in San Jose, California.

The session, called Smart Sensors & Sensor Fusion, will provide a day-long insights for to understand new developments in the sensors space. Speakers on the track will cover sensor market growth, testing, software trends, safety requirements and more.

The conference got its start 37 years ago with a focus on sensor technology and has grown and diversified throughout the years to include the electronics technologies and embedded systems that work together with sensors as well as emerging application areas.

“The conference has an excellent reputation in the industry for bringing key players together to discuss important technologies that drive innovation,” Dr. Beiker said. “I’m looking forward to the conversations that will happen at this year’s event.”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast with Alain Kornhauser and Dick Mudge

Posted on March 29, 2022June 13, 2022 by SiliconValleyMobility

I had a great podcast discussion with Alain Kornhauser and Richard Mudge on automated driving, applications, use cases, and remaining challenges. Most of it was a serious discussion, and we also had a lot of fun taking some things a bit more lightheartedly.

We covered a lot of ground from a brief review of the front runners in the autonomous vehicles field, pilot programs, consumer needs, etc. And of course Alain Kornhauser being Alain Kornhauser, we also had to talk about things happening in Trenton, NJ and the new Mercedes-Benz AG Drive Pilot.

Thanks to Fred Fishkin for coordinating the podcast.

Webcast with SAE on the mobility topics of 2021

Posted on December 21, 2021December 21, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

I had a very nice conversation with Angela Kenner at SAE International when we discussed the trends in automated driving and electric mobility of 2021 and where things might be going next year.

We started out with some observations in China and then moved to Silicon Valley.

Certainly, much has been accomplished with AVs and EVs, especially where strong partnerships between the traditional automotive industry, tech players, and startups thrive.

An easy listening, I hope you like it.

Happy holidays everyone, we’ll reconnect in 2022…

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, May 2021

Posted on May 28, 2021July 11, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

From ACES to VTOL – Silicon Valley’s next big thing after autonomous driving

ACES seems to be losing steam, autonomous driving and shared mobility appear to have peaked. So what’s next? eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) or “flying taxis” are gaining momentum in Silicon Valley and beyond as they fit the profile of “disruptive tech” quite well.

If the promises from the beautiful pitch decks hold true, then eVTOL can totally change the way how we get around and create a new trillion dollar market. Of course, there are also challenges with those hardware-heavy products, lengthy certification processes, and comparatively low volume.

In Silicon Valley there are several contenders going after this new market, some of them have reached unicorn status and gone public via SPAC mergers. It is for sure a field that deserves attention and might be the next big thing in mobility after ACES – besides it being about autonomous, connected, electric, shared as well, just a bit loftier than passenger cars.

Vehicle Electrification Panel Discussion

Posted on May 12, 2021May 12, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

Our Vehicle Electrification panel discussion with Gary Silber g, Daron Giffo rd, and Christopher Thomas hosted by Association For Corporate Growth – ACG Silicon Valley went quite well. We discussed consumer, business, regulatory, technology, infrastructure aspects.

Ok, we could not answer all open questions regarding PHEV, BEV, FCV. But I like that we looked at “both sides of the coin”; actually one needs to peel the onion a bit to figure out what is “the best” solution – if that even exists…

And Gary did a great intro summarizing his recent research Place your billion-dollar bets wisely: Powertrain strategies for the post-ICE automotive industry

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, April 2021

Posted on April 29, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

Battery Cost – How to project cost of batteries for electric vehicles?

After having discussed battery performance improvement last time and figuring out how something like Moore’s Law actually can be applied, this month I am looking at cost decrease over time. One often-used model for this is Wright’s Law, named after the aeronautical engineer W. P. Wright who observed efficiency improvements in aircraft manufacturing in the 1930s.

Some of this can be applied to batteries for EVs as well, however as those are not as labor intensive to produce like aircraft, it is good to use some combined approach out of Wright’s and Moore’s Laws to model cost.

This gives a funnel that the cost for batteries might come down from roughly 140 $/kWh today to 65 $/kWh by 2025 and even 35 $/kWh by 2030. That actually means that a 350-mile range EV might cost less than a gasoline powered car. Great times ahead!

Guest on the Driving Green podcast

Posted on April 25, 2021April 25, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

This was a great discussion with Ronald Mikhail AngSiy, Kyle Kennedy, and Kevin Wang on the future of autonomy and transportation. We covered quite a few topics at the following time marks:
05:30 – History of Autonomy and ADAS
10:15 – Autonomous Hardware Trends
18:30 – City vs Suburban Environments
25:00 – What is Mobility?
35:15 – What will Autonomy Unlock?
44:00 – City Design
49:00 – Ride Sharing
56:25 – Tesla’s “FSD” Approach
69:53 – Carbon Footprint

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, March 2021

Posted on March 25, 2021March 25, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

Battery Technology – Is there such a thing as Moore’s Law for batteries?

Recently there have been pretty good headlines about EVs again: Volkswagen, BMW, Volvo, GM, and of course Tesla! In related discussion, people often point to Moore’s Law and how battery performance would follow that same progress as computer chips since the 1960s. But is this true?

Actually, battery performance also increases exponentially, however it only doubles every 10 years and not every 2 like computer chips. This still makes for pretty good progress and might offer the energy of a large Tesla battery with the weight of a full gas tank by 2050.

Exciting times, join the discussion, …

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, December 2020

Posted on January 2, 2021January 2, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

2020, the EV inflection point – The year electric vehicles are making it to mainstream

2020 has been many things; in the mobility space we might remember 2020 as the year when electric vehicles reached the inflection point.

Plug-ins reached 10% new vehicle market share in Europe and at some point even outsold diesel cars. In the U.S., Tesla Model 3 has become a solid member of the top 5 best-selling cars.

What’s more, SPACs were a big thing for EV companies in 2020 and Tesla made it to the S&P500.

One can content that EVs reached an inflection point and are about to take off into mainstream market. Battery prices are falling below what used to be seen the magic number of 150 USD/kWh, so it seems this is real and EVs are here to stay.

I hope you like this EV 2020 in review and let me know what you found noteworthy.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, September 2020

Posted on September 27, 2020September 27, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

The State of ACES – What’s up with autonomous-connected-electric-shared?

What has been going on in ACES (autonomous – connected – electric – shared mobility) lately? Not so much? It seems things have lost steam, or at least attention has shifted. Autonomous driving used to be the hot topic, but lately EVs – cars and trucks – have been getting a lot of media interest, regulators’ attention, and certainly business activity.

In this Chart of the Month I am a bit “reading the tea leaves” as I analyze Google Trends as to how much interest there has been in those mobility topics. One actually finds that electric vehicles as a topic has been steadily increasing for the last five years, while autonomous driving has had a few peaks here and there, but has not really built up much more momentum since summer 2016.

Now, this is not a scientific analysis and not real data indicating technology progress. But taking it all together, it reflects in my mind where future mobility as a hole stands – it might be just the calm before the storm…

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, August 2020

Posted on August 27, 2020August 27, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Reverse merger, SPAC, TSLA – Observations around recent financial activity of mobility firms.

There is a lot of activity, talk, and maybe hype around SPAC, reverse merger, and in particular EV companies going public through that route at the moment. But what is behind this, how does it work, and what is the broader picture here?

This month’s video discusses the definition, process, and history of reverse mergers through a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) and suggests that this might need to be seen in context of Tesla’s unprecedented and apparently unstoppable stock rally. While newcomer EV companies might aim for additional funding opportunities, there could also be an opportunity in becoming part of the frenzy that seems to be currently going on at the stock market related to electric mobility.

What do you think? What is happening here and am I missing anything?

Disclaimer: this is not a financial or investment advice. It is the observation of a layperson and solely intended for informational purposes.

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – Part 2: Opportunities for Electronics

Posted on June 22, 2020June 22, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – the second part of the SEMI article how electronics enable much of autonomous, connected, electric, and shared mobility

We discuss here the estimates that the automotive software and electrical/electronic (E/E) components markets combined will grow at a 7% CAGR from USD 238 billion in 2020 to US$469 billion by 2030.

For me it is always important to note that this is not an entirely new trends but goes back to the 1970s when electronic fuel injection, ABS, and on-board computer were introduced.

The ACES trends now show great opportunity for the automotive and electronics industries to work even closer together, which is what SEMI fosters with the Global Automotive Advisory Council and the Smart Mobility initiative.

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – Part 1: Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared

Posted on June 15, 2020June 15, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – nice write-up with my colleagues at SEMI. We are highlighting how electronics enable much of autonomous, connected, electric, and shared mobility. The numbers speak for themselves: by 2025, 14% of all integrated circuits produced globally are projected to go into vehicles.

Great opportunities for the auto and electronics industries to collaborate even more. For that, see also SEMI’s Smart Mobility initiative and the Global Automotive Advisory Council.

In the forthcoming second part, we will be adding that this is not entirely new as electronics have already contributed greatly to efficiency, safety, and convenience of automobiles since the 1970s. Stay tuned…

Future of Mobility – virtual fireside chat w/ Mario Herger

Posted on June 11, 2020June 11, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Mario Herger and Sven Beiker discussed different viewpoints on the combined effect of autonomous driving, electric vehicles, and the sharing economy.

We are on the verge of changing our life as we know it. The way people get around today won’t be recognizable by 2030 – and the impact will be huge. Vehicles will increasingly drive themselves, powered by renewable electric energy, connected via ultra-fast data networks, and shared via mobility platforms. While many agree that those are the directions into the future of mobility, there is still some disagreement regarding the speed at which we are moving in those directions.

Some say that the driver’s license will soon be a thing of the past, others point out that things take time given inertia in the industry, market, and regulation. Those different viewpoints make for a great discussion among the two experts for a virtual fireside chat hosted by GABA – German American Business Association on May 26, 2020.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, May 2020

Posted on May 28, 2020June 11, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Happy anniversary Silicon Valley Mobility! It’s been 3 great years and with that about time to review how it has been going and what the firm actually is. Therefore, as many have been asking about details and specifics, here’s “Silicon Valley Mobility by the Numbers”.

Just recently the 50th client found its way to the firm and most engagements last 12 months or longer. About 20% of the project volume is from speaking engagements, which says that most engagements are non-public consulting projects with clients that are not advertised on the website. And there have been thus far 6 advisory board positions at startups that are also an important part of those engagements and learning.

Silicon Valley Mobility also has a network of almost 100 on-demand domain experts who are ready to team up for projects as needed. Finally, also the vast connections on LinkedIn help to mutually seek and give advice with colleagues.

Thank you all!

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Apr 2020

Posted on April 30, 2020May 8, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

“Don’t go where the puck is, go where it is going to be.” – this famous saying from hockey also applies to the mobility industry, innovation strategy, and also crisis management. There are many examples where a startup aims to be “the next” of something, e.g. “the next Tesla”. Or we might say in this current crisis that “sharing is a thing of the past”.

But what we do all too often is connecting just too few data points and extrapolating from them under the assumption that things will evolve linearly. We much rather need to account for all the twists and turns that those developments might take and therefore we should not aim to be “the next” of something but to create our own future. We need to envision what it will be, and then think backwards how we will have gotten there.

Some food for thought, definitely applies to the thinking what autonomous, connected, electric, and shared mobility will be in the future and how they might be affected by the current crisis.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Jan 2020

Posted on January 30, 2020February 17, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Here we are in 2020 and where are the flying cars and where are the self-driving automobiles? At the beginning of a new decade I review my own forecasts from the past 10+ years and highlight things I got right and those that were a bit off. I also recommend that “forecasting” should rather be done as “projections”, i.e. one is at some point in time now and projects into the future. This should be done in different categories, such as events / innovations that are “certain”, “probable”, or simply just “possible” to happen. Either way, this makes for a interesting self-reflection that I can only recommend to everyone in the field of new mobility and future thinking. It is always good to look back “… what was I thinking?!” I hope you agree this deserves a 7:42 min video. Let me know what you think…

Mobility Outlook 2020 – Interview w/ Mario Herger

Posted on January 13, 2020February 17, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Sven Beiker of Silicon Valley Mobility and Mario Herger met again for a short mobility talk at the beginning of 2020 and analyzed the current situation.

Topics we discussed included:

Autonomous driving in 2020
Tesla share: still just a hype?
Tesla Gigafactory 3 & 4
Future of traditional car makers

Silicon Valley and Detroit Need One Another, Dr. Sven Beiker, Samsung Forum

Posted on June 24, 2019February 17, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Silicon Valley is often called “The New Detroit” and Detroit likes to brag that it has a long-standing history of startups with an entrepreneurial spirit that is still alive today. What’s more, basically all automotive corporations have now R&D locations in Silicon Valley and “in return” tech companies plan to manufacture their autonomous vehicles in Michigan. It seems there is a battle between Detroit and Silicon Valley as to who will win the race toward the future of the automobile. However, this race is much more about collaboration than it is about competition as no player can win just by itself. In this talk, Dr. Sven Beiker looks at the strengths that Detroit and Silicon Valley bring to the table when it comes to autonomous, connected, electric, and shared automobiles. He also discusses the necessary technology to create a world of sustainable, safe, and enjoyable mobility to suggest which ingredients from Detroit and Silicon Valley the automobile of the future will need.

Summer Summit 2019 Day 3 Mobility: Keynote Sven Beiker, Silicon Valley Mobility

Posted on June 14, 2019July 21, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Keynote on the mobility trends at the Plug&Play Summer Summit 2019

Chart of the Month 2018/01 – Interview w/ Mario Herger

Posted on February 22, 2018February 17, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Chart of the Month by Silicon Valley Mobility for January 2018 – infrastructure requirements for advanced mobility and funding gap

The last half year of the chart of the month (07-12/2017) covered the individual trends autonomous, connected, electrified, and shared mobility. The question was often asked, what is missing to move forward in those categories toward a scenario of self-driving, fully connected, all-electric, and conveniently shared vehicles.

The answer is “infrastructure!”, which this month’s chart summarizes. There are 3 categories of infrastructure needed in mobility:
(1) the cvil or built infrastructure with roads, traffic signs
(2) the tech infrastructure with communication and charge networks
(3) the legal infrastructure with permits, standards, taxation

The challenge however is that infrastructure is largely underfunded in many countries; in the U.S. less than half of the existing needs (mostly building and repairing the current roads and bridges…) are covered. That poses big challenges and public-private partnerships are needed to move forward on the agenda for advanced mobility.

The future of personal mobility – Sven Beiker at Seoul Motor Show Conference 2017

Posted on May 20, 2017February 17, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

The future of the automobile is autonomous, connected, electric, and shared – there doesn’t seem to be much debate about this. However, when and how those trends are going to shape up is subject to much discussion. This talk by Sven Beiker at the Seoul Motor Show in April 2017 takes a fresh look at those trends and what can be expected when.