mobility – Silicon Valley Mobility

Conference interview: discussing standards and regulation

Posted on August 8, 2024August 8, 2024 by SiliconValleyMobility

Recently, I have gotten more involved in regulatory and standardization matters around automated vehicles. Now I am looking forward to my participation on behalf of SAE International in the panel discussion “Where standards and regulations meet – how can they best interact?” at the ADAS & AV Conference in San Jose, CA.

Prior to that panel, the conference organizers at UKi Media & Events sat down with me for an interview related to that topic.

The points that were most important for me to get across in that interview:

Industry has a love-hate relationship with standards, but they facilitate collaboration and compare your product with an industry baseline.

Industry has a love-hate relationship with standards, but they facilitate collaboration and compare your product with an industry baseline.
Regarding regulation, there are important distinctions between type-approval (Europe, Japan, South Korea) and self-certification (U.S.).
Quite often, regulation references standards. For example, the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards frequently reference SAE standards.

See the link on the right to read the full interview. What do you think?

Report on traditional automotive industry and new mobility players

Posted on July 8, 2024July 8, 2024 by SiliconValleyMobility

I am proud to have my latest publication with SAE International out:
TWO APPROACHES TO MOBILITY ENGINEERING

This topic is very dear to my heart: to compare and contrast the traditional automotive industry and the new mobility players. Too often have I been getting questions like “who will win?” or “don’t you agree that the metal benders are just dinosaurs that don’t get it?”. Well, the answers are “tough to tell” and “no” and it was about time to write a whole report about the evolution of this fascinating industry.

Here’s the abstract, and see the link on the right for the whole report:
What are the differences between the traditional automotive companies and “new mobility” players—and even more importantly, who will win? Those are the questions that this report discusses, taking a particular focus on engineering aspects in the automotive/mobility sector and addressing issues regarding innovation, business, market, and regulation. To find answers to the questions raised, nearly 20 industry experts from new and established companies were interviewed to gain an overview of the intricacies of newcomers and incumbents, to see where the industry stands, and to provide an outlook on where the sector is headed. This is rounded out by recommendations as to what respective players should do to master their future and stay at the forefront of mobility innovation.

Report on Next-generation Sensors for Automated Road Vehicles

Posted on March 10, 2023March 14, 2023 by SiliconValleyMobility

I am proud to announce that I published another SAE International report in the field of automated vehicles. This one is titled Next-generation Sensors for Automated Road Vehicles

It is essentially the follow-up to the 2018 inaugural SAE EDGE Research Report on Unsettled Topics Concerning Sensors for Automated Road Vehicles and reviews the progress made in automated vehicle sensors over the past four to five years. We also discuss persistent disagreement and confusion regarding certain terms for describing sensors (near-/mid-/long-range, “bad weather”, …), the different strengths and shortcomings of particular sensors (camera, radar, LiDAR), and procedures regarding how to specify and evaluate them (test procedures, evaluation, comparison…).

All in all, “Next-gen Automated Road Vehicle Sensors” summarizes current trends and debates (e.g., sensor fusion, embedded AI, simulation) as well as future directions and needs.

Report on Energy Options on the Path Toward a More Sustainable Transportation Sector

Posted on September 5, 2022March 14, 2023 by SiliconValleyMobility

I just published another SAE International report, this time related to sustainability in transportation: Energy Options on the Path Toward a More Sustainable Transportation Sector

The transportation sector has an enormous demand for resources and energy, is a major contributor of emissions (i.e., greenhouse gases in particular), and it is defined largely by the kind of energy it uses—be it electric cars, biofuel trucks, or hydrogen aircraft. Given the size of this sector, it has a crucial role in combatting climate change and securing sustainability in its three forms: environmental, societal, and economic.

Energy Options on the Path Toward a More Sustainable Transportation Sector examines the many questions concerning alternative energy options for mobility:

Is hydrogen the fuel of the future?
Is there is enough electricity to power a fully electric transportation sector?
What happens when millions of electric vehicle batteries need to be decommissioned?
Which regulatory measures are effective and appropriate for moving the sector in the right direction?
What is the “right” direction?

SAE’s Sven Beiker to chair the session on smart sensors and sensor fusion at Sensors Converge 2022

Posted on June 13, 2022 by SiliconValleyMobility

(originally published by SAE International on June 13, 2022 at https://www.sae.org/blog/sensors-converge-beiker)

Dr. Sven Beiker, Managing Director of Silicon Valley Mobility and External Advisor for SAE International, will chair a session at the upcoming Sensors Converge conference June 27-29 in San Jose, California.

The session, called Smart Sensors & Sensor Fusion, will provide a day-long insights for to understand new developments in the sensors space. Speakers on the track will cover sensor market growth, testing, software trends, safety requirements and more.

The conference got its start 37 years ago with a focus on sensor technology and has grown and diversified throughout the years to include the electronics technologies and embedded systems that work together with sensors as well as emerging application areas.

“The conference has an excellent reputation in the industry for bringing key players together to discuss important technologies that drive innovation,” Dr. Beiker said. “I’m looking forward to the conversations that will happen at this year’s event.”

Smart Driving Cars Podcast with Alain Kornhauser and Dick Mudge

Posted on March 29, 2022June 13, 2022 by SiliconValleyMobility

I had a great podcast discussion with Alain Kornhauser and Richard Mudge on automated driving, applications, use cases, and remaining challenges. Most of it was a serious discussion, and we also had a lot of fun taking some things a bit more lightheartedly.

We covered a lot of ground from a brief review of the front runners in the autonomous vehicles field, pilot programs, consumer needs, etc. And of course Alain Kornhauser being Alain Kornhauser, we also had to talk about things happening in Trenton, NJ and the new Mercedes-Benz AG Drive Pilot.

Thanks to Fred Fishkin for coordinating the podcast.

PAVE Panel on ODD – The Question is Where not When!

Posted on March 25, 2022March 25, 2022 by SiliconValleyMobility

Carter Stern of Cruise and I had a great discussion on Operational Design Domains (ODDs) for automated vehicles at the Partners for Automated Vehicle Education (PAVE) panel.

Our overarching theme was “Where, Not When: Why Domains Matter” and it was nice that Carter and I could build off of one another’s perspectives from the tech and auto industries.

Here’s one of my key points:
“An Operational Design Domain can be anything. It can be what is sometimes called the ‘Four Ws’ – wherever, whenever, whatever the weather. And that is what is called ‘level 5’ or all ODDs you can imagine. But level 5 driving is similar to infinity in math: it is important to prove your concept, but you never get there.”

Tabitha Colter did a fantastic job moderating the discussion and putting thoughtful questions in front of us. Thanks very much!

Webcast with SAE on the mobility topics of 2021

Posted on December 21, 2021December 21, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

I had a very nice conversation with Angela Kenner at SAE International when we discussed the trends in automated driving and electric mobility of 2021 and where things might be going next year.

We started out with some observations in China and then moved to Silicon Valley.

Certainly, much has been accomplished with AVs and EVs, especially where strong partnerships between the traditional automotive industry, tech players, and startups thrive.

An easy listening, I hope you like it.

Happy holidays everyone, we’ll reconnect in 2022…

The Software Defined Car | Silicon Valley Engineering Notes (SVEN) 12/2021

Posted on December 6, 2021December 6, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

The perfection of hardware, software, and smartness

Some often-made statements say that mechanical hardware engineering does not matter much anymore in automobiles as those will be defined by software. But is it really as simple as that?

Well, I don’t want to rescue a dinosaur, but to put things right, it requires an integration of soft- AND hardware to figure out future mobility with autonomous, electric, and smart vehicles. Software arguably is at the beginning of a chain of commands to control a vehicle, but ultimately things get in motion through hardware.

This is reflected in the activity related to in-wheel motors or corner modules that keep an automobiles hardware basic but smart. One needs to be aware that tires, weight distribution, suspension, aerodynamics matter a lot and determine where and how a vehicle is moving.

Therefore, mechanical hardware might not get more and more sophisticated but will still matter a lot and needs to be accounted for to make sure software controls work out as intended.

Let me know what you think, I’d be happy to discuss further…

Realities of traffic make automated driving a challenge

Posted on October 16, 2021October 16, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

Nice interview here with SAE International for their monthly magazine “Update“. My piece is titled “Realities of traffic make automated driving a challenge”.

It is a conversation around what is missing to bring autonomous vehicles (automated driving to use the right SAE term) to the real world. I am glad that SAE asked as I have been discussing a lot over the years what is holding us back: technology, regulation, trust…? My view is that we have solutions for all of those, as long as we choose the ODD wisely. However, real-world traffic still poses the biggest challenge.

Along those lines, I created the following chart at some point. On the right you see the graphic of climbing a mountain, which I typically use as a prompt in my talks to say the following.

– If you want to get on top of the world, Mount Everest, you might get on a plane in San Francisco, make a connection in Heathrow, and get to Kathmandu.
– From the airport you travel to the basecamp at 5,300m altitude of Mount Everest
– At that point you have traveled well over 99% or so of the distance, but this is where it begins to get interesting…

Automated Driving Basics

Posted on September 28, 2021October 16, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

I wanted to recommend a to explain the tech that is necessary to make a car self-driving to the students in my Stanford Business School class. I was looking for videos online and there are quite good ones on the web. You can search for yourself.

But there was none that shows exactly the scope and depth that I wanted, so I created my own. It got a bit longer than expected, but you can watch in pieces and stop / review at any time.

I hope it is helpful.

Say hello to the Silicon Valley Engineering Notes – SVEN!

Posted on September 22, 2021October 16, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

This is my new series in which I’d like to bring the new and the old together to drive ACES forward. I start off by laying out the foundations for how AV development, AI, etc. need to work together with traditional automotive engineering. I am sure we can all learn something here…

Everybody knows by now that the future of mobility is going to be autonomous, connected, electric, and shared: “ACES”. It is just taking longer than most expected and often we find challenges in between the new and the old. This new series will discuss, among other things, critical aspects at the intersection of autonomous technology and automotive engineering.

The insights will help to understand how a vehicle moves based on steering, braking, accelerator, which is the essential foundation for whatever software, AI, platform one wants to envision on top of it. This knowledge helps software engineers to develop their algorithms as much as it helps decisionmakers to gain an overall system’s perspective.

Report on Visual Communication Between Automated Vehicles and Other Road Users

Posted on August 6, 2021August 6, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

I am glad and proud to have another SAE EDGE Research Report published. This one discusses “Visual Communication Between Automated Vehicles and Other Road Users”.

As automated road vehicles begin their deployment into public traffic, they will need to interact with human driven vehicles, pedestrians, bicyclists, etc. This requires some form of communication between those automated vehicles (AVs) and other road users. Some of these communication modes (e.g., auditory, motion) were previously addressed in “Unsettled Issues Regarding Communication of Automated Vehicles with Other Road Users.”

We had the general overview already out earlier in the year, and now this one focuses on visual communication and its balance of reach, clarity, and intuitiveness, and discusses how different visual modes (e.g., simple lights, rich text) can be used between AVs and other road users. A particular emphasis is put on standardization to highlight how uniformity and mass adoption increase communication efficacy.

Road Vehicle Automation Vol 8 is out

Posted on July 11, 2021July 11, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

Happy to report that the 8th volume of Road Vehicle Automation is out! Year after year I am enjoying the collaboration with Gereon Meyer on this book, and reading the papers before we forward them for publication helps me tremendously to stay current in the field of driving automation.

Thanks to all the great authors for letting me learn from you!

Alright, more to come, ARTS21 (Automated Road Transportation Symposium) is starting on Jul 12 and soon after Gereon and I will start Road Vehicle Automation 9. Stay tuned!

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, May 2021

Posted on May 28, 2021July 11, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

From ACES to VTOL – Silicon Valley’s next big thing after autonomous driving

ACES seems to be losing steam, autonomous driving and shared mobility appear to have peaked. So what’s next? eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) or “flying taxis” are gaining momentum in Silicon Valley and beyond as they fit the profile of “disruptive tech” quite well.

If the promises from the beautiful pitch decks hold true, then eVTOL can totally change the way how we get around and create a new trillion dollar market. Of course, there are also challenges with those hardware-heavy products, lengthy certification processes, and comparatively low volume.

In Silicon Valley there are several contenders going after this new market, some of them have reached unicorn status and gone public via SPAC mergers. It is for sure a field that deserves attention and might be the next big thing in mobility after ACES – besides it being about autonomous, connected, electric, shared as well, just a bit loftier than passenger cars.

Sensors for automated vehicles – contribution to EU panel discussion

Posted on May 13, 2021May 13, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

Key Vehicle Technologies for Cooperative Connected Automated Mobility (CCAM): Is the level of maturity sufficient for high-level automation?

Robust and accurate environment perception is absolutely essential for highly automated vehicles to enable the safe and unambiguous extraction of reliable information for real-time driving decision-making. Vehicle technologies need to reliably identify, track and discriminate between benign and hazardous objects in the path of the vehicle, under the full range of environmental conditions in which the vehicle is intended to operate. This session addresses the different challenges which must be overcome through advances in vehicle technologies in order to enable CCAM with higher levels of automation to become reality in the near future.

My contribution to the panel hosted by the European Commission discussed the basics of automated vehicle sensors (camera, radar, LiDAR), sensor fusion, and the market outlook.

One topic that I emphasized in particular at the end is recalibration of those sensors once vehicles age and need repair. A recent study showed that just replacing sensors is not enough, they need to get recalibrated for e.g. automated emergency braking (AEB) to work properly. However, those procedures might be costly and not every repair shop might be able to perform those; so that sensors might just get replaced but not recalibrated – and the ADAS won’t work or actually cause additional risk.

Vehicle Electrification Panel Discussion

Posted on May 12, 2021May 12, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

Our Vehicle Electrification panel discussion with Gary Silber g, Daron Giffo rd, and Christopher Thomas hosted by Association For Corporate Growth – ACG Silicon Valley went quite well. We discussed consumer, business, regulatory, technology, infrastructure aspects.

Ok, we could not answer all open questions regarding PHEV, BEV, FCV. But I like that we looked at “both sides of the coin”; actually one needs to peel the onion a bit to figure out what is “the best” solution – if that even exists…

And Gary did a great intro summarizing his recent research Place your billion-dollar bets wisely: Powertrain strategies for the post-ICE automotive industry

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, April 2021

Posted on April 29, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

Battery Cost – How to project cost of batteries for electric vehicles?

After having discussed battery performance improvement last time and figuring out how something like Moore’s Law actually can be applied, this month I am looking at cost decrease over time. One often-used model for this is Wright’s Law, named after the aeronautical engineer W. P. Wright who observed efficiency improvements in aircraft manufacturing in the 1930s.

Some of this can be applied to batteries for EVs as well, however as those are not as labor intensive to produce like aircraft, it is good to use some combined approach out of Wright’s and Moore’s Laws to model cost.

This gives a funnel that the cost for batteries might come down from roughly 140 $/kWh today to 65 $/kWh by 2025 and even 35 $/kWh by 2030. That actually means that a 350-mile range EV might cost less than a gasoline powered car. Great times ahead!

Guest on the Driving Green podcast

Posted on April 25, 2021April 25, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

This was a great discussion with Ronald Mikhail AngSiy, Kyle Kennedy, and Kevin Wang on the future of autonomy and transportation. We covered quite a few topics at the following time marks:
05:30 – History of Autonomy and ADAS
10:15 – Autonomous Hardware Trends
18:30 – City vs Suburban Environments
25:00 – What is Mobility?
35:15 – What will Autonomy Unlock?
44:00 – City Design
49:00 – Ride Sharing
56:25 – Tesla’s “FSD” Approach
69:53 – Carbon Footprint

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, March 2021

Posted on March 25, 2021March 25, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

Battery Technology – Is there such a thing as Moore’s Law for batteries?

Recently there have been pretty good headlines about EVs again: Volkswagen, BMW, Volvo, GM, and of course Tesla! In related discussion, people often point to Moore’s Law and how battery performance would follow that same progress as computer chips since the 1960s. But is this true?

Actually, battery performance also increases exponentially, however it only doubles every 10 years and not every 2 like computer chips. This still makes for pretty good progress and might offer the energy of a large Tesla battery with the weight of a full gas tank by 2050.

Exciting times, join the discussion, …

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, February 2021

Posted on March 19, 2021March 19, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

Chart of the Month by Silicon Valley Mobility for February 2021: Most innovative companies – Tesla of course!?

There is a lot of talk about innovative companies and often Tesla ranks at the top; together with Amazon, Alphabet / Google, and other tech firms. I took a closer look at different rankings and found that those actually don’t agree much as to who is “innovative”. Some conduct surveys to determine a ranking, others compare stock price vs. revenue (the latter in particular favoring Tesla). Here is my chart that gives some pretty interesting insights into this:

The chart shows that Tesla shows up in three recent rankings, which also makes it the overall leader – fair enough. However, going down in those rankings, one sees very different companies listed.

In the left third of the chart there is also a comparison how the top 10 of Forbes Most Innovative Companies ranked in 2018 vs. 2011. Most of them were not listed at all in 2011, incl. Tesla. However, I would content that was when Tesla certainly was innovative and only today we see the results. Conversely maybe Apple, they were high on everyone’s list in the early 2010s and where are they headed now?

This is a reminder that (a) innovativeness lies in the eye of beholder and (b) innovation is a constant battle.

Which companies would be on your list?

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, January 2021

Posted on January 30, 2021January 30, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

Silicon Valley Tourism – CES happened and no one came to visit us

2020 has been many things; in the mobility space we might remember 2020 as the year when electric vehicles reached the inflection point.

CES 2021 happened and no one came to visit Silicon Valley afterwards. But now that that was not possible, Silicon Valley comes to you. Had you come here, we would have had a great discussion on current topics around mobility, ranging from technology to business to politics. We would have talked about Mercedes’ Hyperscreen, trends in LiDAR, the ongoing frenzy of SPAC mergers, and the hopes one can have into the new administration in Washington.

In all of that we might have discussed questions around the health of the Valley, in particular as quite a few of our favorite meeting places have closed their doors for good. Certainly things are changing in Silicon Valley, similar to other places in the world, and I am sure this place will reinvent itself again.

Those topics and more are covered in this Chart of the Month from Silicon Valley Mobility, which hopefully remedies a bit the situation that you could not come to visit us this year after CES. Take a look and let me know what might be missing!

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, December 2020

Posted on January 2, 2021January 2, 2021 by SiliconValleyMobility

2020, the EV inflection point – The year electric vehicles are making it to mainstream

2020 has been many things; in the mobility space we might remember 2020 as the year when electric vehicles reached the inflection point.

Plug-ins reached 10% new vehicle market share in Europe and at some point even outsold diesel cars. In the U.S., Tesla Model 3 has become a solid member of the top 5 best-selling cars.

What’s more, SPACs were a big thing for EV companies in 2020 and Tesla made it to the S&P500.

One can content that EVs reached an inflection point and are about to take off into mainstream market. Battery prices are falling below what used to be seen the magic number of 150 USD/kWh, so it seems this is real and EVs are here to stay.

I hope you like this EV 2020 in review and let me know what you found noteworthy.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, November 2020

Posted on December 7, 2020December 7, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Mobility Services & Motorsports – What it takes to win and what the race is all about

BMW and Daimler appear to be in talks with Uber to sell their mobility services and GM also brought their Maven program to an end earlier this year. This begs the question if car companies are not capable of running a shared mobility business. However, one also needs to admit that none of the big companies in shared mobility seem to be profitable.

To understand what is going on, the analogy to motorsports actually helps because both (i.e. mobility services and motorsports) are about innovation, advertising, and expansion. Similarly, both are often programs that cost several hundreds of million dollars a year.

Therefore, one should see venturing into mobility services more like an endurance race that requires constant improvements and adjustments, but can ultimately lead to market share if not market dominance.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, October 2020

Posted on October 30, 2020October 30, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Outlook at the Rest of 2020 – elections, shared mobility and driverless vehicles

2020 has been a strange year, but it’s not over yet: we will have the U.S. elections in just a few days now. Here in California, Proposition 22 is on the ballot. We get to say whether the drivers for Uber, Lyft, DoorDash etc. are independent contractors or employees. The outcome of this vote, which is one of the highest funded propositions in the history of California, will have great implication for the business and operation of shared mobility – in an extreme case those services might come to an end.

Should those mobility services cease – which probably is not too likely after all, then the solution might lie in driverless solutions. Therefore it is interesting to note that Waymo – just like every October for the last 3 years – just made announcements that driverless rides are coming to the public. We will see what’s behind this. In my mind, for broad deployment, infrastructure investments are essential, which in return might be impacted by the outcome of the presidential elections in the U.S.

Certainly 2020 is not over yet, either way it will have been quite a year.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, September 2020

Posted on September 27, 2020September 27, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

The State of ACES – What’s up with autonomous-connected-electric-shared?

What has been going on in ACES (autonomous – connected – electric – shared mobility) lately? Not so much? It seems things have lost steam, or at least attention has shifted. Autonomous driving used to be the hot topic, but lately EVs – cars and trucks – have been getting a lot of media interest, regulators’ attention, and certainly business activity.

In this Chart of the Month I am a bit “reading the tea leaves” as I analyze Google Trends as to how much interest there has been in those mobility topics. One actually finds that electric vehicles as a topic has been steadily increasing for the last five years, while autonomous driving has had a few peaks here and there, but has not really built up much more momentum since summer 2016.

Now, this is not a scientific analysis and not real data indicating technology progress. But taking it all together, it reflects in my mind where future mobility as a hole stands – it might be just the calm before the storm…

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, August 2020

Posted on August 27, 2020August 27, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Reverse merger, SPAC, TSLA – Observations around recent financial activity of mobility firms.

There is a lot of activity, talk, and maybe hype around SPAC, reverse merger, and in particular EV companies going public through that route at the moment. But what is behind this, how does it work, and what is the broader picture here?

This month’s video discusses the definition, process, and history of reverse mergers through a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) and suggests that this might need to be seen in context of Tesla’s unprecedented and apparently unstoppable stock rally. While newcomer EV companies might aim for additional funding opportunities, there could also be an opportunity in becoming part of the frenzy that seems to be currently going on at the stock market related to electric mobility.

What do you think? What is happening here and am I missing anything?

Disclaimer: this is not a financial or investment advice. It is the observation of a layperson and solely intended for informational purposes.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, July 2020

Posted on July 30, 2020August 27, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Chart of the Month by Silicon Valley Mobility for July 2020 – Shared mobility is here to stay

A client recently asked if it is about time to drop the “S” in “ACES”. The underlying question was if shared mobility actually has a future in light of the 2020 crisis with people concerned about sharing and no one traveling anywhere. So here is my answer:

As the chart summarizes, analysts still see double digit growth for shared mobility in recently updated revenue forecasts for 2025. The market is largely driven by ride hailing, i.e. services like Didi, Gett, Uber, etc. Micro mobility (scooters and bicycles), which operate with relatively low fees, have surpassed car sharing in global revenues in 2019. While ultimate conclusions should be done with caution, it seems possible that car sharing might not remain in key market through the 2020s.

Such trends emphasize that consumers increasingly appreciate mobility “access over ownership”, i.e. services are key. That does not however automatically mean “sharing” as e.g. ride hailing is not really a shared trip.

Given those observations, one might want to use “commoditization” instead of “shared mobility”. In that sense – yes, we might drop the “S” in “ACES” and replace it with another “C”. That would make it “ACEC”, which does not roll off of the tongue nicely.

Thoughts anyone?

Preview of plenary presentation at AVS20

Posted on July 21, 2020July 21, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Here’s a preview of my talk at the Automated Vehicles Symposium next week.

Abstract: Sensors are arguably one of the most important components in an automated driving system as they are the input to everything in the control system including artificial intelligence processes. While it is uncontested that cameras, radar, LiDAR, and others all have strengths in detecting objects, there is also great debate what the optimal solution and combination of sensors for an automated vehicle is. While this presentation does not aim to answer the question about the optimal solution, it will give an overview of the current debate, research activities, product solutions, and market trends. The audience will recognize several examples and hopefully also take note of thus far missed recent advances. In that sense, this talk aims to initiate further discussion regarding automated vehicle sensors at the conference and beyond.

Webpage: https://lnkd.in/gMv9-fb

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, June 2020

Posted on June 26, 2020July 8, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Deciding between keep or cut.

This month we review recent news about mobility related ventures that got impacted by the pandemic. While there are quite some bad news, it should also not go unnoticed that there’s good news as well. Seemingly, it is not about “all or nothing” but about “the right” thing.

The question becomes how to decide what tasks, projects, investments etc. to keep and what to let go.

The key to success is to prioritize the portfolio from the top using a metric that is unique to one organization and also to let gut feeling play a role to make sure the result is the right thing. Communication matters a lot in this as the team needs to be coached in a potentially different situation, and therefore it is important to motivate.

While we do know how long past downturns lasted, no one can tell how long this one will take. Competitors also don’t know and are probably asking the same question. However, one thing is for sure, that a crisis will be over at some point and it is important to get through a challenging situation with a streamlined portfolio and a motivated team.

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – Part 2: Opportunities for Electronics

Posted on June 22, 2020June 22, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – the second part of the SEMI article how electronics enable much of autonomous, connected, electric, and shared mobility

We discuss here the estimates that the automotive software and electrical/electronic (E/E) components markets combined will grow at a 7% CAGR from USD 238 billion in 2020 to US$469 billion by 2030.

For me it is always important to note that this is not an entirely new trends but goes back to the 1970s when electronic fuel injection, ABS, and on-board computer were introduced.

The ACES trends now show great opportunity for the automotive and electronics industries to work even closer together, which is what SEMI fosters with the Global Automotive Advisory Council and the Smart Mobility initiative.

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – Part 1: Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared

Posted on June 15, 2020June 15, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – nice write-up with my colleagues at SEMI. We are highlighting how electronics enable much of autonomous, connected, electric, and shared mobility. The numbers speak for themselves: by 2025, 14% of all integrated circuits produced globally are projected to go into vehicles.

Great opportunities for the auto and electronics industries to collaborate even more. For that, see also SEMI’s Smart Mobility initiative and the Global Automotive Advisory Council.

In the forthcoming second part, we will be adding that this is not entirely new as electronics have already contributed greatly to efficiency, safety, and convenience of automobiles since the 1970s. Stay tuned…

Future of Mobility – virtual fireside chat w/ Mario Herger

Posted on June 11, 2020June 11, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Mario Herger and Sven Beiker discussed different viewpoints on the combined effect of autonomous driving, electric vehicles, and the sharing economy.

We are on the verge of changing our life as we know it. The way people get around today won’t be recognizable by 2030 – and the impact will be huge. Vehicles will increasingly drive themselves, powered by renewable electric energy, connected via ultra-fast data networks, and shared via mobility platforms. While many agree that those are the directions into the future of mobility, there is still some disagreement regarding the speed at which we are moving in those directions.

Some say that the driver’s license will soon be a thing of the past, others point out that things take time given inertia in the industry, market, and regulation. Those different viewpoints make for a great discussion among the two experts for a virtual fireside chat hosted by GABA – German American Business Association on May 26, 2020.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, May 2020

Posted on May 28, 2020June 11, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Happy anniversary Silicon Valley Mobility! It’s been 3 great years and with that about time to review how it has been going and what the firm actually is. Therefore, as many have been asking about details and specifics, here’s “Silicon Valley Mobility by the Numbers”.

Just recently the 50th client found its way to the firm and most engagements last 12 months or longer. About 20% of the project volume is from speaking engagements, which says that most engagements are non-public consulting projects with clients that are not advertised on the website. And there have been thus far 6 advisory board positions at startups that are also an important part of those engagements and learning.

Silicon Valley Mobility also has a network of almost 100 on-demand domain experts who are ready to team up for projects as needed. Finally, also the vast connections on LinkedIn help to mutually seek and give advice with colleagues.

Thank you all!

The Future of the Automated Mobility Industry: A Strategic Management Perspective

Posted on May 20, 2020May 20, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

I am proud to have co-authored this paper with Prof. Robert Burgelman at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business.

Our paper examines the automation and sharing aspects of the competitive dynamics of the emerging automated mobility industry. It applies strategic management, technological innovation and forecasting frameworks to examine how the different categories of industry entrants position themselves and interact with one another, and their differential chances for success.

Related to the different types of entrants it considers various criteria of success, including expected market share of vehicle sales versus miles serviced, and the number of systems, technology solutions, or licenses sold. Whether firms enter the automated mobility industry with a lateral move from an adjacent industry or as startups without preexisting experience turns out to be an important strategic distinction for predicting success.

The rate at which the industry is shifting also plays an important role because it defines how much time incumbents have to adapt to change and how much time new entrants have before their investments must begin to generate positive cash flows.Our analysis suggests that tech companies, ADAS suppliers, and startups with a welldefined focus are most likely to succeed. The paper ends with highlighting important strategic issues for further discussion with automotive industry researchers, industry analysts, and leading practitioners.

Keywords: automotive industry, automated driving, autonomous driving, autonomous vehicles, shared mobility, driver assistance, ADAS, strategy, disruption, innovation management

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Apr 2020

Posted on April 30, 2020May 8, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

“Don’t go where the puck is, go where it is going to be.” – this famous saying from hockey also applies to the mobility industry, innovation strategy, and also crisis management. There are many examples where a startup aims to be “the next” of something, e.g. “the next Tesla”. Or we might say in this current crisis that “sharing is a thing of the past”.

But what we do all too often is connecting just too few data points and extrapolating from them under the assumption that things will evolve linearly. We much rather need to account for all the twists and turns that those developments might take and therefore we should not aim to be “the next” of something but to create our own future. We need to envision what it will be, and then think backwards how we will have gotten there.

Some food for thought, definitely applies to the thinking what autonomous, connected, electric, and shared mobility will be in the future and how they might be affected by the current crisis.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Mar 2020

Posted on March 26, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

A slightly different analysis of the California DMV 2019 Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports that looks deeper into the narrative of where and why disengagements were encountered in 8,885 cases over 2.9m miles covered by 652 vehicles operated by 28 companies. One finds for instance that companies describe potentially similar cases in different terms and varying level of detail. And also, companies focus on different locations for testing, such as some report mostly disengagements on highways and others more on city streets. All this shows that the disengagement reports must not be used as a competitive analysis, let alone “ranking”, of companies. But the reports might serve as an indication how far the industry of autonomous driving has come as a whole, with challenges still in negotiating situations with humans, especially in what is called by some companies “aggressive” or “reckless” behavior. And also, the analysis of a vast number of disengagements shows that quite often the “planner” seems to have problems, which might be an indication that stand-alone planning might not be the only way toward automated vehicles in public and a more collaborative approach might be in order.

Unsettled Issues in Determining Appropriate Modeling Fidelity for Automated Driving Systems Simulation

Posted on March 18, 2020March 18, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Here’s the other SAE International EDGE Research Report that we published already some months ago: “Unsettled Issues in Determining Appropriate Modeling Fidelity for Automated Driving Systems Simulation”

It discusses the challenges of achieving optimal model fidelity for developing, validating, and verifying automated vehicles. The primary questions raised are:

How to make sure that simulation models represent their real-world counterparts
How to define a universal simulation model interface
How to determine the different requirements for sensor, vehicle, environment, and human driver models

Thanks to the team for your great contributions!

https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/epr2019007/

A Detailed Commercialization Analysis of Autonomous Vehicle Technology in the Trucking Industry

Posted on March 9, 2020March 9, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

The study on autonomous trucking by Michael Wishart and Joey Skavroneck, with whom I have been working at Stanford Business School is now online on Medium. It addresses key points regarding:

Market Landscape of Traditional Trucking
– Vehicle Manufacturers and their partners
– Carriers (Operators)
– Brokers and Dispatchers
– Regulators and Unions
Key Trends Facing the Industry
– Demand
– Supply
– Technology
Market Landscape for the New Self-Driving Trucks
– Technology Providers
– Truck OEMs
– Carriers (Operators)
– Shippers
– Regulators
Scenarios for New Self-Driving Trucks
– Driver in the vehicle – ADAS
– Transfer Hub Model
– Automated end-to-end (E2E) w/ TeleOps
Economics of New Self-Driving Trucks
– Unit of Economics
– Technological Feasibility
– Non-Market Risks
Conclusions

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Feb 2020

Posted on February 27, 2020February 27, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Quo vadis, autonomous driving? What can we say with near certainty and what only with some probability about autonomous driving? I have made two very interesting observations this month: (1) an investor told me “the days of burning money in a parking lot are over” and (2) the first Waymo test vehicle outside my house. Both observations taken together lead me to believe that funding for (at least early stage) AV companies is dwindling and Waymo might get really close to a “real” public launch now. Watch my video and join the discussion – what do you observe and what do you think?

Unsettled Issues in Balancing Virtual, Closed-Course, and Public-Road Testing of Automated Driving Systems

Posted on February 20, 2020March 18, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Great to have two new SAE EDGE Research Reports out there! The first report discusses three main issues:

Determining what kind of testing an ADS needs before it is ready to go on the road.
The current, optimal, and realistic balance of simulation testing and real-world testing.
The challenges of sharing data in the industry.

We have been discussing a lot how to develop > test > certify autonomous vehicles and always get to the point of simulation vs. road testing. So we went deeper into this to at least agree on the “right” questions.

Thanks to the team for a great collaboration!

https://saemobilus.sae.org/content/epr2019011

Testing & Simulation of Autonomous Vehicles – Stanford Research Park Speaker Series

Posted on February 18, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Sven Beiker led a discussion about Testing & Simulation of Autonomous Vehicles – Balancing the real and virtual worlds of future mobility. This event was hosted by Stanford Research Park in collaboration with SAE International and hosted by Ford Greenfield Labs.

“How safe is safe enough?” – that is one of the most essential, most discussed, and still unanswered questions around autonomous vehicles. As the industry prepares for the deployment of self-driving cars, there appears to be only one way to ensure safety: to run over and over again through each and every possible situation those vehicles might encounter during operation. This is done in part through testing on public roads, but to maximize safety and accuracy, closed course testing is also very important. And still, as it is understood that hundreds of millions of miles would need to be driven in order to prove the safety of autonomous vehicles, simulating those situations in the virtual world has also become essential. This presentation and following panel discussion dove into those topics to discuss how the real and virtual worlds need to be balanced for safety, efficacy, and efficiency in testing and how important fidelity of simulation models is in order to draw conclusions from the virtual to the real world. The panelists are members of a core team that gave input to the two most recent SAE International EDGE Research Reports titled “Balancing Virtual, Closed- Course, and Public-Road Testing of Automated Driving Systems” and “Determining Appropriate Modeling Fidelity for Automated Driving Systems Simulation”.

Panelists:
Sven A. Beiker – Managing Director at Silicon Valley Mobility (moderator)
Alexander Kraus – Senior Vice President Automotive at TÜV SÜD
Georg List – Vice President Corporate Strategy at AVL
Robert Seidl – Managing Director at Motus Ventures
Thomas Bock – Director Vehicle Integration & Testing at Samsung Smart Machines

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Jan 2020

Posted on January 30, 2020February 17, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Here we are in 2020 and where are the flying cars and where are the self-driving automobiles? At the beginning of a new decade I review my own forecasts from the past 10+ years and highlight things I got right and those that were a bit off. I also recommend that “forecasting” should rather be done as “projections”, i.e. one is at some point in time now and projects into the future. This should be done in different categories, such as events / innovations that are “certain”, “probable”, or simply just “possible” to happen. Either way, this makes for a interesting self-reflection that I can only recommend to everyone in the field of new mobility and future thinking. It is always good to look back “… what was I thinking?!” I hope you agree this deserves a 7:42 min video. Let me know what you think…

Mobility Outlook 2020 – Interview w/ Mario Herger

Posted on January 13, 2020February 17, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Sven Beiker of Silicon Valley Mobility and Mario Herger met again for a short mobility talk at the beginning of 2020 and analyzed the current situation.

Topics we discussed included:

Autonomous driving in 2020
Tesla share: still just a hype?
Tesla Gigafactory 3 & 4
Future of traditional car makers

Silicon Valley and Detroit Need One Another, Dr. Sven Beiker, Samsung Forum

Posted on June 24, 2019February 17, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Silicon Valley is often called “The New Detroit” and Detroit likes to brag that it has a long-standing history of startups with an entrepreneurial spirit that is still alive today. What’s more, basically all automotive corporations have now R&D locations in Silicon Valley and “in return” tech companies plan to manufacture their autonomous vehicles in Michigan. It seems there is a battle between Detroit and Silicon Valley as to who will win the race toward the future of the automobile. However, this race is much more about collaboration than it is about competition as no player can win just by itself. In this talk, Dr. Sven Beiker looks at the strengths that Detroit and Silicon Valley bring to the table when it comes to autonomous, connected, electric, and shared automobiles. He also discusses the necessary technology to create a world of sustainable, safe, and enjoyable mobility to suggest which ingredients from Detroit and Silicon Valley the automobile of the future will need.

Summer Summit 2019 Day 3 Mobility: Keynote Sven Beiker, Silicon Valley Mobility

Posted on June 14, 2019July 21, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Keynote on the mobility trends at the Plug&Play Summer Summit 2019

Chart of the Month 2018/01 – Interview w/ Mario Herger

Posted on February 22, 2018February 17, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

Chart of the Month by Silicon Valley Mobility for January 2018 – infrastructure requirements for advanced mobility and funding gap

The last half year of the chart of the month (07-12/2017) covered the individual trends autonomous, connected, electrified, and shared mobility. The question was often asked, what is missing to move forward in those categories toward a scenario of self-driving, fully connected, all-electric, and conveniently shared vehicles.

The answer is “infrastructure!”, which this month’s chart summarizes. There are 3 categories of infrastructure needed in mobility:
(1) the cvil or built infrastructure with roads, traffic signs
(2) the tech infrastructure with communication and charge networks
(3) the legal infrastructure with permits, standards, taxation

The challenge however is that infrastructure is largely underfunded in many countries; in the U.S. less than half of the existing needs (mostly building and repairing the current roads and bridges…) are covered. That poses big challenges and public-private partnerships are needed to move forward on the agenda for advanced mobility.

The future of personal mobility – Sven Beiker at Seoul Motor Show Conference 2017

Posted on May 20, 2017February 17, 2020 by SiliconValleyMobility

The future of the automobile is autonomous, connected, electric, and shared – there doesn’t seem to be much debate about this. However, when and how those trends are going to shape up is subject to much discussion. This talk by Sven Beiker at the Seoul Motor Show in April 2017 takes a fresh look at those trends and what can be expected when.