Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, June 2020

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, June 2020

Deciding between keep or cut.

This month we review recent news about mobility related ventures that got impacted by the pandemic. While there are quite some bad news, it should also not go unnoticed that there’s good news as well. Seemingly, it is not about “all or nothing” but about “the right” thing.

The question becomes how to decide what tasks, projects, investments etc. to keep and what to let go.

The key to success is to prioritize the portfolio from the top using a metric that is unique to one organization and also to let gut feeling play a role to make sure the result is the right thing. Communication matters a lot in this as the team needs to be coached in a potentially different situation, and therefore it is important to motivate.

While we do know how long past downturns lasted, no one can tell how long this one will take. Competitors also don’t know and are probably asking the same question. However, one thing is for sure, that a crisis will be over at some point and it is important to get through a challenging situation with a streamlined portfolio and a motivated team.

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – Part 2: Opportunities for Electronics

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – Part 2: Opportunities for Electronics

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – the second part of the SEMI article how electronics enable much of autonomous, connected, electric, and shared mobility

We discuss here the estimates that the automotive software and electrical/electronic (E/E) components markets combined will grow at a 7% CAGR from USD 238 billion in 2020 to US$469 billion by 2030.

For me it is always important to note that this is not an entirely new trends but goes back to the 1970s when electronic fuel injection, ABS, and on-board computer were introduced.

The ACES trends now show great opportunity for the automotive and electronics industries to work even closer together, which is what SEMI fosters with the Global Automotive Advisory Council and the Smart Mobility initiative.


Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – Part 1: Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – Part 1: Autonomous, Connected, Electric and Shared

Microelectronics Power the Future of Mobility – nice write-up with my colleagues at SEMI. We are highlighting how electronics enable much of autonomous, connected, electric, and shared mobility. The numbers speak for themselves: by 2025, 14% of all integrated circuits produced globally are projected to go into vehicles.

Great opportunities for the auto and electronics industries to collaborate even more. For that, see also SEMI’s Smart Mobility initiative and the Global Automotive Advisory Council.

In the forthcoming second part, we will be adding that this is not entirely new as electronics have already contributed greatly to efficiency, safety, and convenience of automobiles since the 1970s. Stay tuned…


Future of Mobility – virtual fireside chat w/ Mario Herger

Future of Mobility – virtual fireside chat w/ Mario Herger

Mario Herger and Sven Beiker discussed different viewpoints on the combined effect of autonomous driving, electric vehicles, and the sharing economy.

We are on the verge of changing our life as we know it. The way people get around today won’t be recognizable by 2030 – and the impact will be huge. Vehicles will increasingly drive themselves, powered by renewable electric energy, connected via ultra-fast data networks, and shared via mobility platforms. While many agree that those are the directions into the future of mobility, there is still some disagreement regarding the speed at which we are moving in those directions.

Some say that the driver’s license will soon be a thing of the past, others point out that things take time given inertia in the industry, market, and regulation. Those different viewpoints make for a great discussion among the two experts for a virtual fireside chat hosted by GABA – German American Business Association on May 26, 2020.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, May 2020

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, May 2020

Happy anniversary Silicon Valley Mobility! It’s been 3 great years and with that about time to review how it has been going and what the firm actually is. Therefore, as many have been asking about details and specifics, here’s “Silicon Valley Mobility by the Numbers”.

Just recently the 50th client found its way to the firm and most engagements last 12 months or longer. About 20% of the project volume is from speaking engagements, which says that most engagements are non-public consulting projects with clients that are not advertised on the website. And there have been thus far 6 advisory board positions at startups that are also an important part of those engagements and learning.

Silicon Valley Mobility also has a network of almost 100 on-demand domain experts who are ready to team up for projects as needed. Finally, also the vast connections on LinkedIn help to mutually seek and give advice with colleagues.

Thank you all!

The Future of the Automated Mobility Industry: A Strategic Management Perspective

The Future of the Automated Mobility Industry: A Strategic Management Perspective

I am proud to have co-authored this paper with Prof. Robert Burgelman at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business.

Our paper examines the automation and sharing aspects of the competitive dynamics of the emerging automated mobility industry. It applies strategic management, technological innovation and forecasting frameworks to examine how the different categories of industry entrants position themselves and interact with one another, and their differential chances for success.

Related to the different types of entrants it considers various criteria of success, including expected market share of vehicle sales versus miles serviced, and the number of systems, technology solutions, or licenses sold. Whether firms enter the automated mobility industry with a lateral move from an adjacent industry or as startups without preexisting experience turns out to be an important strategic distinction for predicting success.

The rate at which the industry is shifting also plays an important role because it defines how much time incumbents have to adapt to change and how much time new entrants have before their investments must begin to generate positive cash flows.Our analysis suggests that tech companies, ADAS suppliers, and startups with a welldefined focus are most likely to succeed. The paper ends with highlighting important strategic issues for further discussion with automotive industry researchers, industry analysts, and leading practitioners.

Keywords: automotive industry, automated driving, autonomous driving, autonomous vehicles, shared mobility, driver assistance, ADAS, strategy, disruption, innovation management


Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Apr 2020

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Apr 2020

“Don’t go where the puck is, go where it is going to be.” – this famous saying from hockey also applies to the mobility industry, innovation strategy, and also crisis management. There are many examples where a startup aims to be “the next” of something, e.g. “the next Tesla”. Or we might say in this current crisis that “sharing is a thing of the past”.

But what we do all too often is connecting just too few data points and extrapolating from them under the assumption that things will evolve linearly. We much rather need to account for all the twists and turns that those developments might take and therefore we should not aim to be “the next” of something but to create our own future. We need to envision what it will be, and then think backwards how we will have gotten there.

Some food for thought, definitely applies to the thinking what autonomous, connected, electric, and shared mobility will be in the future and how they might be affected by the current crisis.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Mar 2020

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Mar 2020

A slightly different analysis of the California DMV 2019 Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports that looks deeper into the narrative of where and why disengagements were encountered in 8,885 cases over 2.9m miles covered by 652 vehicles operated by 28 companies. One finds for instance that companies describe potentially similar cases in different terms and varying level of detail. And also, companies focus on different locations for testing, such as some report mostly disengagements on highways and others more on city streets. All this shows that the disengagement reports must not be used as a competitive analysis, let alone “ranking”, of companies. But the reports might serve as an indication how far the industry of autonomous driving has come as a whole, with challenges still in negotiating situations with humans, especially in what is called by some companies “aggressive” or “reckless” behavior. And also, the analysis of a vast number of disengagements shows that quite often the “planner” seems to have problems, which might be an indication that stand-alone planning might not be the only way toward automated vehicles in public and a more collaborative approach might be in order.

Unsettled Issues in Determining Appropriate Modeling Fidelity for Automated Driving Systems Simulation

Unsettled Issues in Determining Appropriate Modeling Fidelity for Automated Driving Systems Simulation

Here’s the other SAE International EDGE Research Report that we published already some months ago: “Unsettled Issues in Determining Appropriate Modeling Fidelity for Automated Driving Systems Simulation”

It discusses the challenges of achieving optimal model fidelity for developing, validating, and verifying automated vehicles. The primary questions raised are:

  1. How to make sure that simulation models represent their real-world counterparts
  2. How to define a universal simulation model interface
  3. How to determine the different requirements for sensor, vehicle, environment, and human driver models

Thanks to the team for your great contributions!

https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/epr2019007/


Click image for more info

A Detailed Commercialization Analysis of Autonomous Vehicle Technology in the Trucking Industry

A Detailed Commercialization Analysis of Autonomous Vehicle Technology in the Trucking Industry

The study on autonomous trucking by Michael Wishart and Joey Skavroneck, with whom I have been working at Stanford Business School is now online on Medium. It addresses key points regarding:

Market Landscape of Traditional Trucking
– Vehicle Manufacturers and their partners
– Carriers (Operators)
– Brokers and Dispatchers
– Regulators and Unions
Key Trends Facing the Industry
– Demand
– Supply
– Technology
Market Landscape for the New Self-Driving Trucks
– Technology Providers
– Truck OEMs
– Carriers (Operators)
– Shippers
– Regulators
Scenarios for New Self-Driving Trucks
– Driver in the vehicle – ADAS
– Transfer Hub Model
– Automated end-to-end (E2E) w/ TeleOps
Economics of New Self-Driving Trucks
– Unit of Economics
– Technological Feasibility
– Non-Market Risks
Conclusions


A Detailed Commercialization Analysis of Autonomous Vehicle Technology in the Trucking Industry
Click image to read the full study

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Feb 2020

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Feb 2020

Quo vadis, autonomous driving? What can we say with near certainty and what only with some probability about autonomous driving? I have made two very interesting observations this month: (1) an investor told me “the days of burning money in a parking lot are over” and (2) the first Waymo test vehicle outside my house. Both observations taken together lead me to believe that funding for (at least early stage) AV companies is dwindling and Waymo might get really close to a “real” public launch now. Watch my video and join the discussion – what do you observe and what do you think?

Unsettled Issues in Balancing Virtual, Closed-Course, and Public-Road Testing of Automated Driving Systems

Unsettled Issues in Balancing Virtual, Closed-Course, and Public-Road Testing of Automated Driving Systems

Great to have two new SAE EDGE Research Reports out there! The first report discusses three main issues:

  1. Determining what kind of testing an ADS needs before it is ready to go on the road.
  2. The current, optimal, and realistic balance of simulation testing and real-world testing.
  3. The challenges of sharing data in the industry.

We have been discussing a lot how to develop > test > certify autonomous vehicles and always get to the point of simulation vs. road testing. So we went deeper into this to at least agree on the “right” questions.

Thanks to the team for a great collaboration!

https://saemobilus.sae.org/content/epr2019011


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Testing & Simulation of Autonomous Vehicles – Stanford Research Park Speaker Series

Testing & Simulation of Autonomous Vehicles – Stanford Research Park Speaker Series

Sven Beiker led a discussion about Testing & Simulation of Autonomous Vehicles – Balancing the real and virtual worlds of future mobility. This event was hosted by Stanford Research Park in collaboration with SAE International and hosted by Ford Greenfield Labs.

“How safe is safe enough?” – that is one of the most essential, most discussed, and still unanswered questions around autonomous vehicles. As the industry prepares for the deployment of self-driving cars, there appears to be only one way to ensure safety: to run over and over again through each and every possible situation those vehicles might encounter during operation. This is done in part through testing on public roads, but to maximize safety and accuracy, closed course testing is also very important. And still, as it is understood that hundreds of millions of miles would need to be driven in order to prove the safety of autonomous vehicles, simulating those situations in the virtual world has also become essential. This presentation and following panel discussion dove into those topics to discuss how the real and virtual worlds need to be balanced for safety, efficacy, and efficiency in testing and how important fidelity of simulation models is in order to draw conclusions from the virtual to the real world. The panelists are members of a core team that gave input to the two most recent SAE International EDGE Research Reports titled “Balancing Virtual, Closed- Course, and Public-Road Testing of Automated Driving Systems” and “Determining Appropriate Modeling Fidelity for Automated Driving Systems Simulation”.

Panelists:
Sven A. Beiker – Managing Director at Silicon Valley Mobility (moderator)
Alexander Kraus – Senior Vice President Automotive at TÜV SÜD
Georg List – Vice President Corporate Strategy at AVL
Robert Seidl – Managing Director at Motus Ventures
Thomas Bock – Director Vehicle Integration & Testing at Samsung Smart Machines

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Jan 2020

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Jan 2020

Here we are in 2020 and where are the flying cars and where are the self-driving automobiles? At the beginning of a new decade I review my own forecasts from the past 10+ years and highlight things I got right and those that were a bit off. I also recommend that “forecasting” should rather be done as “projections”, i.e. one is at some point in time now and projects into the future. This should be done in different categories, such as events / innovations that are “certain”, “probable”, or simply just “possible” to happen. Either way, this makes for a interesting self-reflection that I can only recommend to everyone in the field of new mobility and future thinking. It is always good to look back “… what was I thinking?!” I hope you agree this deserves a 7:42 min video. Let me know what you think…

Mobility Outlook 2020 – Interview w/ Mario Herger

Mobility Outlook 2020 – Interview w/ Mario Herger


Sven Beiker of Silicon Valley Mobility and Mario Herger met again for a short mobility talk at the beginning of 2020 and analyzed the current situation.

Topics we discussed included:

  • Autonomous driving in 2020
  • Tesla share: still just a hype?
  • Tesla Gigafactory 3 & 4
  • Future of traditional car makers

Silicon Valley and Detroit Need One Another, Dr. Sven Beiker, Samsung Forum

Silicon Valley and Detroit Need One Another, Dr. Sven Beiker, Samsung Forum

Silicon Valley is often called “The New Detroit” and Detroit likes to brag that it has a long-standing history of startups with an entrepreneurial spirit that is still alive today. What’s more, basically all automotive corporations have now R&D locations in Silicon Valley and “in return” tech companies plan to manufacture their autonomous vehicles in Michigan. It seems there is a battle between Detroit and Silicon Valley as to who will win the race toward the future of the automobile. However, this race is much more about collaboration than it is about competition as no player can win just by itself. In this talk, Dr. Sven Beiker looks at the strengths that Detroit and Silicon Valley bring to the table when it comes to autonomous, connected, electric, and shared automobiles. He also discusses the necessary technology to create a world of sustainable, safe, and enjoyable mobility to suggest which ingredients from Detroit and Silicon Valley the automobile of the future will need.

Chart of the Month 2018/01 – Interview w/ Mario Herger

Chart of the Month 2018/01 – Interview w/ Mario Herger

Chart of the Month by Silicon Valley Mobility for January 2018 – infrastructure requirements for advanced mobility and funding gap

The last half year of the chart of the month (07-12/2017) covered the individual trends autonomous, connected, electrified, and shared mobility. The question was often asked, what is missing to move forward in those categories toward a scenario of self-driving, fully connected, all-electric, and conveniently shared vehicles.

The answer is “infrastructure!”, which this month’s chart summarizes. There are 3 categories of infrastructure needed in mobility:
(1) the cvil or built infrastructure with roads, traffic signs
(2) the tech infrastructure with communication and charge networks
(3) the legal infrastructure with permits, standards, taxation

The challenge however is that infrastructure is largely underfunded in many countries; in the U.S. less than half of the existing needs (mostly building and repairing the current roads and bridges…) are covered. That poses big challenges and public-private partnerships are needed to move forward on the agenda for advanced mobility.

The future of personal mobility – Sven Beiker at Seoul Motor Show Conference 2017

The future of personal mobility – Sven Beiker at Seoul Motor Show Conference 2017

The future of the automobile is autonomous, connected, electric, and shared – there doesn’t seem to be much debate about this. However, when and how those trends are going to shape up is subject to much discussion. This talk by Sven Beiker at the Seoul Motor Show in April 2017 takes a fresh look at those trends and what can be expected when.

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