Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Mar 2020

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Mar 2020

A slightly different analysis of the California DMV 2019 Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports that looks deeper into the narrative of where and why disengagements were encountered in 8,885 cases over 2.9m miles covered by 652 vehicles operated by 28 companies. One finds for instance that companies describe potentially similar cases in different terms and varying level of detail. And also, companies focus on different locations for testing, such as some report mostly disengagements on highways and others more on city streets. All this shows that the disengagement reports must not be used as a competitive analysis, let alone “ranking”, of companies. But the reports might serve as an indication how far the industry of autonomous driving has come as a whole, with challenges still in negotiating situations with humans, especially in what is called by some companies “aggressive” or “reckless” behavior. And also, the analysis of a vast number of disengagements shows that quite often the “planner” seems to have problems, which might be an indication that stand-alone planning might not be the only way toward automated vehicles in public and a more collaborative approach might be in order.

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Feb 2020

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Feb 2020

Quo vadis, autonomous driving? What can we say with near certainty and what only with some probability about autonomous driving? I have made two very interesting observations this month: (1) an investor told me “the days of burning money in a parking lot are over” and (2) the first Waymo test vehicle outside my house. Both observations taken together lead me to believe that funding for (at least early stage) AV companies is dwindling and Waymo might get really close to a “real” public launch now. Watch my video and join the discussion – what do you observe and what do you think?

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Jan 2020

Silicon Valley Mobility Chart of the Month, Jan 2020

Here we are in 2020 and where are the flying cars and where are the self-driving automobiles? At the beginning of a new decade I review my own forecasts from the past 10+ years and highlight things I got right and those that were a bit off. I also recommend that “forecasting” should rather be done as “projections”, i.e. one is at some point in time now and projects into the future. This should be done in different categories, such as events / innovations that are “certain”, “probable”, or simply just “possible” to happen. Either way, this makes for a interesting self-reflection that I can only recommend to everyone in the field of new mobility and future thinking. It is always good to look back “… what was I thinking?!” I hope you agree this deserves a 7:42 min video. Let me know what you think…

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