Battery Cost – How to project cost of batteries for electric vehicles?
After having discussed battery performance improvement last time and figuring out how something like Moore’s Law actually can be applied, this month I am looking at cost decrease over time. One often-used model for this is Wright’s Law, named after the aeronautical engineer W. P. Wright who observed efficiency improvements in aircraft manufacturing in the 1930s.
Some of this can be applied to batteries for EVs as well, however as those are not as labor intensive to produce like aircraft, it is good to use some combined approach out of Wright’s and Moore’s Laws to model cost.
This gives a funnel that the cost for batteries might come down from roughly 140 $/kWh today to 65 $/kWh by 2025 and even 35 $/kWh by 2030. That actually means that a 350-mile range EV might cost less than a gasoline powered car. Great times ahead!