The Future of the Automated Mobility Industry: A Strategic Management Perspective

The Future of the Automated Mobility Industry: A Strategic Management Perspective

I am proud to have co-authored this paper with Prof. Robert Burgelman at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business.

Our paper examines the automation and sharing aspects of the competitive dynamics of the emerging automated mobility industry. It applies strategic management, technological innovation and forecasting frameworks to examine how the different categories of industry entrants position themselves and interact with one another, and their differential chances for success.

Related to the different types of entrants it considers various criteria of success, including expected market share of vehicle sales versus miles serviced, and the number of systems, technology solutions, or licenses sold. Whether firms enter the automated mobility industry with a lateral move from an adjacent industry or as startups without preexisting experience turns out to be an important strategic distinction for predicting success.

The rate at which the industry is shifting also plays an important role because it defines how much time incumbents have to adapt to change and how much time new entrants have before their investments must begin to generate positive cash flows.Our analysis suggests that tech companies, ADAS suppliers, and startups with a welldefined focus are most likely to succeed. The paper ends with highlighting important strategic issues for further discussion with automotive industry researchers, industry analysts, and leading practitioners.

Keywords: automotive industry, automated driving, autonomous driving, autonomous vehicles, shared mobility, driver assistance, ADAS, strategy, disruption, innovation management


Unsettled Issues in Determining Appropriate Modeling Fidelity for Automated Driving Systems Simulation

Unsettled Issues in Determining Appropriate Modeling Fidelity for Automated Driving Systems Simulation

Here’s the other SAE International EDGE Research Report that we published already some months ago: “Unsettled Issues in Determining Appropriate Modeling Fidelity for Automated Driving Systems Simulation”

It discusses the challenges of achieving optimal model fidelity for developing, validating, and verifying automated vehicles. The primary questions raised are:

  1. How to make sure that simulation models represent their real-world counterparts
  2. How to define a universal simulation model interface
  3. How to determine the different requirements for sensor, vehicle, environment, and human driver models

Thanks to the team for your great contributions!

https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/epr2019007/


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A Detailed Commercialization Analysis of Autonomous Vehicle Technology in the Trucking Industry

A Detailed Commercialization Analysis of Autonomous Vehicle Technology in the Trucking Industry

The study on autonomous trucking by Michael Wishart and Joey Skavroneck, with whom I have been working at Stanford Business School is now online on Medium. It addresses key points regarding:

Market Landscape of Traditional Trucking
– Vehicle Manufacturers and their partners
– Carriers (Operators)
– Brokers and Dispatchers
– Regulators and Unions
Key Trends Facing the Industry
– Demand
– Supply
– Technology
Market Landscape for the New Self-Driving Trucks
– Technology Providers
– Truck OEMs
– Carriers (Operators)
– Shippers
– Regulators
Scenarios for New Self-Driving Trucks
– Driver in the vehicle – ADAS
– Transfer Hub Model
– Automated end-to-end (E2E) w/ TeleOps
Economics of New Self-Driving Trucks
– Unit of Economics
– Technological Feasibility
– Non-Market Risks
Conclusions


A Detailed Commercialization Analysis of Autonomous Vehicle Technology in the Trucking Industry
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Unsettled Issues in Balancing Virtual, Closed-Course, and Public-Road Testing of Automated Driving Systems

Unsettled Issues in Balancing Virtual, Closed-Course, and Public-Road Testing of Automated Driving Systems

Great to have two new SAE EDGE Research Reports out there! The first report discusses three main issues:

  1. Determining what kind of testing an ADS needs before it is ready to go on the road.
  2. The current, optimal, and realistic balance of simulation testing and real-world testing.
  3. The challenges of sharing data in the industry.

We have been discussing a lot how to develop > test > certify autonomous vehicles and always get to the point of simulation vs. road testing. So we went deeper into this to at least agree on the “right” questions.

Thanks to the team for a great collaboration!

https://saemobilus.sae.org/content/epr2019011


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